Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Fortune at the bottom of the pyramid - too good to be true?

I'm a bit behind the story here, but just came across this paper (from 2007) on the Kauffman.org site claiming that selling to the bottom of the pyramid isn't a win (in most cases). Worth a read if, like me, you're behind the story on this one ...

"The popular ‘bottom of the pyramid’ (BOP) proposition argues that large companies can make a fortune by selling to poor people and simultaneously help eradicate poverty. While a few market opportunities do exist, the market at the BOP is generally too small monetarily to be very profitable for most multinationals. At the same time, the private sector can play a key role in poverty alleviation by viewing the poor as producers, and emphasize buying from them, rather than selling to them."


Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: A Mirage How the private sector can help alleviate poverty

Aneel Karnani Stephen M. Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan

E-mail: akarnani@umich.edu

April 2007

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=914518 

 

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Thursday, March 22, 2012

The Free Universal Construction Kit | F.A.T.

F.A.T. Lab and Sy-Lab are pleased to present the Free Universal Construction Kit: a matrix of nearly 80 adapter bricks that enable complete interoperability between ten* popular children’s construction toys. By allowing any piece to join to any other, the Kit encourages totally new forms of intercourse between otherwise closed systems—enabling radically hybrid constructive play, the creation of previously impossible designs, and ultimately, more creative opportunities for kids. As with other grassroots interoperability remedies, the Free Universal Construction Kit implements proprietary protocols in order to provide a public service unmet—or unmeetable—by corporate interests.

By itself this is a massively cool exercise, but brings up all sorts of interesting philosophical questions about using technologies of all stripes, together, in shocking mix and match rainbows of competence and otherwise. It's not so far from innovation in the large, the idea that bringing together different domains of expertise results in all sorts of interesting new ideas, or from the tremendous enthusiasm for startups and indeed any type of 'making' that happens again and again in SV and in special parts of the world.

In this case, combining toys with different construction 'affordances' makes for a much more flexible, more universal, construction capability. It's also super cool in that it makes the capabilities of 3d printing ever more clear in terms of bridging into a new world of IP concerns, capabilities and freedoms.

For more on the Universal construction kit see http://fffff.at/free-universal-construction-kit/
For an interesting riff on makers and the emerging world of 3d see http://venturebeat.com/2012/03/21/dylans-desk-when-craftsmanship-meets-tech-m...

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Sunday, March 11, 2012

Cloud Robotics Hackathon - Notes and thoughts

Last weekend Andra organized a very cool robotics hackathon at the Citrix Startup Accelerator as part of the Cloud Robotics Hackathon. Apart from being ground breaking, it was a heck of a lot of fun. Here's some images and videos of the event on the Google+ for RobotLaunchpad.

In this blog I wanted to capture the approach that Guy Bieber and I came down to with the supplied RobotShop Rover with ultimately a bluetooth module and Andra's HTC Android phone. This is intended to be a quick capture of approach and code to help others who use similar kits.

Photo-2

This was a fun weekend and way to explore the near future of these types of devices and using them with cloud functionality. I'm looking forward to much more from commodity robots linked in with SmartPhones and the cloud. This was a good way to make the Internet of Things more visceral.

__

The goal of the exercise was to build a useful tool with a combination of the rover and the myrobots.com site for robot connectivity. We had discussed a bunch of possible outcomes including:

  • A robot that responds to (online visible) sports outcomes by dancing happy or sad dances
  • listening for particular phrases then adding notes to evernote
  • taking pictures when names given
  • if bored, play a youtube video
  • link to mechanical turk to assist with navigation
  • use ifttt to control outcomes

Ultimately however, it took quite a while to get the robot working, and to iterate through possible combinations of connectivity, programming environment and more. Hence we didn't play with the possbilities as much as anticipated, but we did find a very workable combination of technologies that also - happily - leverages the SmartPhone, which is one of the less complex routes to the 'Internet of Things' and to affordable commericalization of a bunch of interesting robotic ideas.

What didn't work:

  • We found that the USB host connection to Android, and using the USB Host kit was simply too complex for a quick weekend hack. This would make a lot of sense to revisit at time of commercialization, etc.
  • Bluetooth connection to iPhone - we're both iPhone users, and thought that getting bluetooth connection up would make iPhone control viable. However this was not the case, as Apple has locked down bluetooth connectivity to only 'blessed' devices.
  • Easy connectivity to the myrobots.com site by device or Android - however with judicious exploration of scripts for thinkspeak we found some viable options.

What tweaks were needed along the way:

Code fragments that follow are not neat, particualrly documented, nor particualrly well written, however they are provided in hopes that they are of use to others who might get further with this combination of tech in future.

 

SL4A code

##############################################################################
#
# Drive rover with voice commands from iPhone
# startBluetooth came from uibtre.py - this also contains code for accelerometer control
# (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtmRBxRsMk4, http://code.google.com/p/android-jp-kobe/source/browse/trunk/pyAndyUI/uibtre.py)
#
# Michael Harries -- March 4, 2012
##############################################################################
import sys
import time
import json
import httplib, urllib
import android

d = android.Android()

def startbluetooth():
    uuid = '00001101-0000-1000-8000-00805F9B34FB'
    d.dialogCreateAlert( "select BlueTooth operation" )
    d.dialogSetPositiveButtonText( "server" )
    d.dialogSetNeutralButtonText( "client" )
    d.dialogSetNegativeButtonText( "no-BT" )
    d.dialogShow()
    ret = d.dialogGetResponse().result[ "which" ]

    if ret == "positive":
        d.bluetoothMakeDiscoverable()
        d.bluetoothAccept( uuid )
        return True
    elif ret == "neutral":
        ret = d.bluetoothConnect( uuid ).result
        if not ret:
            d.makeToast( "bluetooth not connected" )
            sys.exit( 0 )
        return True
    print "skip bt setup"
    return False

def main():
    prevchar=' '
    nextchar=' '
    # d.startSensingTimed( 2, 300 )   ### sense start

    fBT = startbluetooth()
    d.ttsSpeak("command me baby")
    #d.ttsSpeak("forward backward left right stop cloud quit")
   
    while True:
        command = d.recognizeSpeech("Command me baby", None, None)
        print command[1]
       
        if command[1] == "stop":
            nextchar = 'x'
            fBT and d.bluetoothWrite('x')
            d.ttsSpeak("stop")
        elif command[1] == "left":
            nextchar = 'a'
            fBT and d.bluetoothWrite('a')
            d.ttsSpeak("left")
        elif command[1] == "right":
            nextchar = 'd'
            fBT and d.bluetoothWrite('d')            
            d.ttsSpeak("right")
        elif command[1] == "forward":
            nextchar = 'w'
            fBT and d.bluetoothWrite('w')   
            d.ttsSpeak("forward")
        elif command[1] == "back":
            nextchar = 's'
            fBT and d.bluetoothWrite('s')
            d.ttsSpeak("back")
        elif command[1]=="cloud":
            nextchar='c'
            # grab command by myrobot.com
            conn = httplib.HTTPConnection("bots.myrobots.com")
            conn.request("GET", "/channels/595/feed/last.json")
            response = conn.getresponse()
            print response.status, response.reason
            json_string = response.read()
            print json_string
            conn.close()
            data = json.loads(json_string)
            print data
            #say
            say=data['field2']
            if say:
                d.ttsSpeak(say)
            #move
            move=data['field1']
            if move:
                print move
                #d.bluethoothWrite('w')
                fBT and d.bluetoothWrite(move)
                time.sleep(1)
                fBT and d.bluetoothWrite('x')
            #play
            play=data['field3']
            if play:
                print play
                d.mediaPlay(play)
                fBT and d.bluetoothWrite('a')
                time.sleep(.5)
                fBT and d.bluetoothWrite('d')
                time.sleep(.5)
                fBT and d.bluetoothWrite('w')
                time.sleep(.5)
                fBT and d.bluetoothWrite('s')
                time.sleep(.5)
                fBT and d.bluetoothWrite('x')
           
        elif command[1] == "quit":
            fBT and d.bluetoothWrite('x')
            d.ttsSpeak("Did I do something wrong")
            return True
           
        #time.sleep( 0.5 )
        prevchar = nextchar
   
    d.dialogDismiss()

if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()

Arduino - Rover code

int E1 = 6; //M1 Speed Control
int E2 = 5; //M2 Speed Control
int M1 = 8; //M1 Direction Control
int M2 = 7; //M2 Direction Control
void setup(void) {
  int i;
  for(i=5;i<=8;i++) pinMode(i, OUTPUT);
  Serial.begin(9600);
}
void loop(void) {
  while (Serial.available() < 1) {
  } // Wait until a character is received
  char val = Serial.read();
  int leftspeed = 255; //255 is maximum speed
  int rightspeed = 255;
  switch(val) // Perform an action depending on the command
  {
  case 'w'://Move Forward
    forward (leftspeed,rightspeed);
    break;
  case 's'://Move Backwards
    reverse (leftspeed,rightspeed);
    break;
  case 'a'://Turn Left
    left (leftspeed,rightspeed);
    break;
  case 'd'://Turn Right
    right (leftspeed,rightspeed);
    break;
  case 'x'://stop
    stop ();
    break;
  default:
    stop();
    break;
  }
}
void stop(void) //Stop
{
  digitalWrite(E1,LOW);
  digitalWrite(E2,LOW);
}
void forward(char a,char b) {
  analogWrite (E1,a);
  digitalWrite(M1,LOW);
  analogWrite (E2,b);
  digitalWrite(M2,LOW);
}
void reverse (char a,char b) {
  analogWrite (E1,a);
  digitalWrite(M1,HIGH);
  analogWrite (E2,b);
  digitalWrite(M2,HIGH);
}
void left (char a,char b) {
  analogWrite (E1,a);
  digitalWrite(M1,HIGH);
  analogWrite (E2,b);
  digitalWrite(M2,LOW);
}
void right (char a,char b) {
  analogWrite (E1,a);
  digitalWrite(M1,LOW);
  analogWrite (E2,b);
  digitalWrite(M2,HIGH);
}

Python script for uploading commands to myrobots.com

import httplib, urllib
import time
 
def doit():
    params = urllib.urlencode({'field1': 'w', 'field2': 'not quite a square','field3': 'http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKxx5QC0ewc#t=57s','key':'B85D18A801134D7F'})
    headers = {"Content-type": "application/x-www-form-urlencoded","Accept": "text/plain"}
    conn = httplib.HTTPConnection("bots.myrobots.com")
    conn.request("POST", "/update", params, headers)
    response = conn.getresponse()
    print response.status, response.reason
    data = response.read()
    conn.close()
 
#sleep for 16 seconds (api limit of 15 secs)
if __name__ == "__main__":
        doit()

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Friday, February 17, 2012

Still think 3d printing is only for geeks? Here's a great primer

Way too many people still think 3d printing is an anomoly, a waste of time, a hobby. I would tender the view that this is the repsonse of dinosaurs viewing the mammal, or of "serious computing" specialists considered the early micro computer enthusiasts.

In any case, it was a pleasure to come across this TED talk by Lisa Harouni that gives a great update of all the different elements of 3d printing as it stands today, and points to the rapidly emerging personal manufacturing future.

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Thursday, February 9, 2012

The 6 killer apps of prosperity - financial crises an epiphenomena - TED talk

This TED talk provides a meta-pattern to understand the rise of China/India, etc as being associated with the East accumulating some of the 'killer apps' or patterns from the West, and thus regaining their historical productivity balance with the West. It's the great re-convergence.

At the end of the talk Niall Ferguson makes the case that the current Western fiscal crises are mainly epiphenomenon and have been accelerated by the underlying shift or rebalancing of power.

http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/niall_ferguson_the_6_killer_apps_of_prosperi...

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Saturday, January 21, 2012

The Robots of CES  - Technology Review

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The Xybot turns an ordinary iPhone into a mobile avatar. A phone docked into the robot streams video of the person controlling it using an app running on another iPhone.

Xybotyx of Littleton, Colorado, which makes the robot, was founded by two engineers who met while working on NASA’s Phoenix Mars rover. The Xybot will be released in March at a price of $111.11.

Helluva lot cheaper than a presence bot. Another example of the ubiquity of the SmartPhone making computing / networking / etc effectively free.

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Cartels Are an Emergent Phenomenon, Say Complexity Theorists - Technology Review

in a population of a million agents over time period of a billion iterations and more.

The results make interesting reading.  It turns out that a crucial factor is the speed at which buyers and sellers react to the market. When buyers react quickest, sellers are forced to match the best possible value for money and prices tend to drop.

By contrast, when sellers react quickest, they are quick to copy others offering poor value for money. This reduces the number of sellers offering good value for money in a vicious cycle that drives prices as high as possible. 

This is the emergence of a cartel and it happens in these guys' model without any collusion between sellers. Instead, it is an emergent property of the market place that happens when the sellers outperform buyers in the way they react to market conditions. 

Cool result from computational economics. I wonder if similar things occur throughout the dynamics of new product adoption.

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Friday, November 11, 2011

Good insights into the future of Computer Interaction and todays blithe assumptions

take out your favorite Magical And Revolutionary Technology Device. Use it for a bit.

What did you feel? Did it feel glassy? Did it have no connection whatsoever with the task you were performing?

I call this technology Pictures Under Glass. Pictures Under Glass sacrifice all the tactile richness of working with our hands, offering instead a hokey visual facade.

Is that so bad, to dump the tactile for the visual? Try this: close your eyes and tie your shoelaces. No problem at all, right? Now, how well do you think you could tie your shoes if your arm was asleep? Or even if your fingers were numb? When working with our hands, touch does the driving, and vision helps out from the back seat.

Pictures Under Glass is an interaction paradigm of permanent numbness. It's a Novocaine drip to the wrist. It denies our hands what they do best. And yet, it's the star player in every Vision Of The Future.

To me, claiming that Pictures Under Glass is the future of interaction is like claiming that black-and-white is the future of photography. It's obviously a transitional technology. And the sooner we transition, the better.

HANDS MANIPULATE THINGS

Excellent points on limitations of our current magical devices. Highly recommend that you read the original rant from Bret Victor. http://worrydream.com/ABriefRantOnTheFutureOfInteractionDesign/

The reality is that there is no more embodied approach for devices extant as yet, with possible exceptions of robotics homebrew/arduino/etc. However these certainly don't have anything like the levels of 'magic' interaction that we're enjoying today with the 'pictures under glass'.

I'm not holding my breath for new approaches any time soon, but longer term ...

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Sunday, September 11, 2011

Cool company - BuildAR - building blocks to make Augmented Reality creation easy ...

What will you build?

Augmented Reality (AR) overlays information, images, 3D objects, audio and video onto your view of the real world around you.

Create your own mobile AR projects easily with no development required & link your content to the real world!

Steps to technology ubiquity - virtualizing the underlying complexity ... Looking forward to seeing more from these guys.

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The books business: Great digital expectations | The Economist

TO SEE how profoundly the book business is changing, watch the shelves. Next month IKEA will introduce a new, deeper version of its ubiquitous “BILLY” bookcase. The flat-pack furniture giant is already promoting glass doors for its bookshelves. The firm reckons customers will increasingly use them for ornaments, tchotchkes and the odd coffee-table tome—anything, that is, except books that are actually read.

In the first five months of this year sales of consumer e-books in America overtook those from adult hardback books. Just a year earlier hardbacks had been worth more than three times as much as e-books, according to the Association of American Publishers. Amazon now sells more copies of e-books than paper books. The drift to digits will speed up as bookshops close. Borders, once a retail behemoth, is liquidating all of its American stores.

Ongoing sad times for the local bookstore.

Isn't this part of a larger trend, building 'cloud' / or ubiquitous connectivity and information into all of our lives. The same trend impacting IT across the board. Bringing both disruption of our comfortable ways of doing things, and radical new capabilities?

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Game Theory

It is possible that Richard Thaler changed his mind about economic theory and went on to challenge what had become a hopelessly dry and out-of-touch discipline because, one day, when a few of his supposedly rational colleagues were over at his house, he noticed that they were unable to stop themselves from gorging on some cashew nuts he'd put out. Then again, it could have been because a friend admitted to Thaler that, although he mowed his own lawn to save $10, he would never agree to cut the lawn next door in return for the same $10 or even more. But the moment that sticks in Thaler's mind occurred back in the 1970's, when he and another friend, a computer maven named Jeff Lasky, decided to skip a basketball game in Rochester because of a swirling snowstorm.

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A deep diver into the anatomy of premature scaling - lessons for startups and others

Scaling operations (optimizing for a given product/customer assumption) before confirming that it's _real_ is a bad idea - Startup Genome shows some good data on this for startups, and probably a bad idea for others with new product hopes.

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Tuesday, August 23, 2011

The end of software transparency? Sculpture showing all the boards that are cut from a single log - 22 Words

Media_httpcdntwentytw_qifnp

Fantastic sculpture.

It brings to mind that more and more we are operating on the level of the black-box, of magickal thinking, of objects and processes that 'just work' ... until they don't. That computing was once transparent, but is no longer. Consider most of your mobile phone experiences, hopefully fantastic, but when it stops you must find an expert, or replace the now no-longer magickal, now 'imp free' device.

In many ways, this is the goal of the 'consumer' device.

Living in an age of magic made real is very appealing in many ways, we can ignore the constraints of time and space to communicate with our friends and colleagues all over the world. We live in an age where the combination of skills can solve most any problem, as argued persuasively by Matt Ridley in his optimistic talk on ideas 'having sex' http://www.ted.com/talks/matt_ridley_when_ideas_have_sex.html. But, increasing it feels like we're losing the ease, from earlier generations, of being able to understand the underlying process, of unpacking all the way down to creating that water wheel, etc. Of being able to tune our own car engine, or indeed to fix our TV. Indeed, it seems that we've become so very good at using modules, at sub-processes, at, arguably, code/module re-use. And where, ultimately does this leave us? How complex an infrastructure might we be able to maintain?

The reality is that this is not a new thing, indeed it has been going on in computing repeatedly as we create a useful abstraction: adders, CPUs, memory, virtual memory, virtual users, virtual machines, and so on. What's new is that we're heading to an age where the outcomes from computing are more and more 'commodity', packaged, wrapped, and protected from meddling. More and more .. part of the world.

This is not a new process. Indeed, the reuse of modules for factories, for commodities, for food, for almost everything in the modern economy is created in such a way. Leonard Read had a wonderful essay in 1958 showing that no one knew how to create 'even' a pencil http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/i-pencil/.

Software is more and more just a component piece for pretty much 'everything'. We can see this in the move from transparency to packaged objects designed to be opaque. This is the transition for software, for computing, to be absorbed, as never before, into the broader economic process.

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Andreessen - Why Software Is Eating the World => Perez - the dynamics of bubbles and golden ages ...

This week, Hewlett-Packard (where I am on the board) announced that it is exploring jettisoning its struggling PC business in favor of investing more heavily in software, where it sees better potential for growth. Meanwhile, Google plans to buy up the cellphone handset maker Motorola Mobility. Both moves surprised the tech world. But both moves are also in line with a trend I've observed, one that makes me optimistic about the future growth of the American and world economies, despite the recent turmoil in the stock market.

In an interview with WSJ's Kevin Delaney, Groupon and LinkedIn investor Marc Andreessen insists that the recent popularity of tech companies does not constitute a bubble. He also stressed that both Apple and Google are undervalued and that "the market doesn't like tech."

In short, software is eating the world.

More than 10 years after the peak of the 1990s dot-com bubble, a dozen or so new Internet companies like Facebook and Twitter are sparking controversy in Silicon Valley, due to their rapidly growing private market valuations, and even the occasional successful IPO. With scars from the heyday of Webvan and Pets.com still fresh in the investor psyche, people are asking, "Isn't this just a dangerous new bubble?"

I, along with others, have been arguing the other side of the case. (I am co-founder and general partner of venture capital firm Andreessen-Horowitz, which has invested in Facebook, Groupon, Skype, Twitter, Zynga, and Foursquare, among others. I am also personally an investor in LinkedIn.) We believe that many of the prominent new Internet companies are building real, high-growth, high-margin, highly defensible businesses.

Nicely argued techno-optimistic view on the future for software from Mark Andreessen.

As it happens, I agree with his view that we're reaching a new plateau of productivity with software. I found it striking that his argument is a point in time illustration of the forecast from (the worth a read) "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages" from Carlotta Perez in 2003 about the relatively predictable cycles of adoption and economic shift for major technological innovation and the expectation, as one of her reviewers put it on Amazon that we "are in the last throes of a technological bubble and just preceding the next period of productive improvement and profit from the disruptive technologies in the 1990" Check it out http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1843763311.

Interesting times for the software 'game' ...

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Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Adventures in Capitalism: The Lesson of Dropbox: Usage = Value

Links to this post

  The Lesson of Dropbox: Usage = Value

Word on the street is that Dropbox is about to raise a major round of financing at a $5 billion+ valuation. While some will cry “Bubble!”, I think there's a different lesson we can learn: Usage = Value. Let's face it–Dropbox isn't the ...
Posted by Chris Yeh at 11:55 AM

Create a Link

Usage + 'Stickiness' = value
Dropbox is a great example, it's baked into too many day to day personal processes to be easily displaced.

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Friday, July 1, 2011

Apple now driving SmartPhone growth in USA?

Media_httpblognielsen_vgtgi

The ongoing battle between Android and Apple for mindshare.

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